Canada following a path to gold

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Team Canada's quest for gold at the World Junior Baseball Championship nearly took a detour down a dangerous road.

Luckily for them, Dalton Pompey knows his way around a diamond.

Pompey came off the bench to go 1-for-3 with two RBI including the game-winning hit in the bottom of the ninth that capped a dramatic comeback by Canada to defeat the Czech Republic 8-7 and advance to the quarterfinals against Italy on Friday.

"Never in doubt," said coach Greg Hamilton after his team avoided a first-round matchup with Chinese Taipei. "Those are the ones that you fear, you really do.

"They're the games that you have to win, that you should win."

And in the end they did, climbing back from a four-run deficit in the sixth to win Pool B in the final game of round robin play in front of a raucous crowd at Port Arthur Stadium.

Pompey, banged up after sliding into second base on Wednesday against Panama, showed no ill effects of the injury after roping a liner into center to score Philip Diedrick and sending the sell-out crowd into a frenzy.

"We had a bullet that we used," Hamilton said in reference to his center fielder. "I was hoping we could use it a little earlier but we'll take it at anytime."

With a crowd of nearly 3,000 fans on hand in support of the host country, few expected the Canadians to have to fight their way back against a winless Czech Republic team.

As it happened, the Thunder Bay faithful were treated to an early taste of the type of playoff atmosphere expected to sweep the city and Port Arthur Stadium when the medal round begins on Friday.

By beating the Czechs and coupled with the Netherlands' improbable come-from- behind win over Cuba, Canada's path to the championship has become much clearer - and perhaps, a little easier.

With coaches and players preaching nothing is a given in a tournament such as this, the fact Canada can now navigate its way to the final without facing two- time defending champion South Korea, Team USA or Cuba has to bode well for a country that has won gold just once in the history of the event.

After beating the Koreans in group play and hanging in tight with the Cubans, Canada has shown its ability to contend with the tournament's incumbent powerhouses.

But Hamilton's not biting as his team prepares to play an Italian squad with nothing to lose and everything to gain against the heavily-favored Canadians.

"You can't take anything for granted," Hamilton said. "We're in a quarterfinal game with a team that's playing with house money.

"If you don't come out ready, you can lose in any given night."

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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